Assault Cannon v Lascannon v Multi-melta: Statistical Analysis
Deciding whether to take an assault cannon or a twin-linked lascannon on your Dread could mean the difference between destroying enemy vehicles or them destroying you. Thanks to Brother Ezzeran for working out the statistics to help you make the choice.
I set up a spreadsheet to try and figure the
relative statistical merits of the TLLC versus
the new AC. This is a somewhat more complicated
task than it seems, due to the number of differences
between the way the two work (twin-linking, special
rules, etc.). What I tried to determine was the
chance a Dread would have of getting a penetrating
hit against various armoured vehicles with each
weapon. The basic formula I used was:
(Chance to Hit) x (Chance
to Penetrate) x (Number of Shots)
My own findings were that at best the Assault Cannon was approximatly equal to the Twin-Linked Lascannon, but with only half the range. At no point was it better, and against certain armour values it was quite a bit worse.
Now, this doesn't make the AC a bad choice against vehicles, but not a no-brainer choice if AT is what you are looking for. The multiple shots and rending rule almost certainly make it a better choice against infantry so I think the flexibility of the AC still make it a good choice for close support (where anti-personnel capability can be as important as anti-tank capability) but if you are looking for pure anti-tank support the TLLC still seems the better way to go.
Assault Cannon
vs AV10 = 63.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV11 = 37.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV12 = 37.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs Av13 = 32.2% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV14 = 26.5% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Tank Hunter Assault Cannon
vs AV10 = 80.2% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV11 = 63.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV12 = 37.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs Av13 = 37.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV14 = 32.2% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Lascannon
vs AV10 = 55.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV11 = 44.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV12 = 33.3% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV13 = 22.2% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs AV14 = 11.1% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Twin-linked Lascannon
vs. AV10 = 74.1% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV11 = 59.3% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV12 = 44.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV13 = 29.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV14 = 14.8% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Tank Hunter Lascannon
vs. AV10 = 66.7% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV11 = 55.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV12 = 44.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV13 = 33.3% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV14 = 22.2% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Tank Hunter Twin-linked
Lascannon
vs. AV10 = 88.9% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV11 = 74.1% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV12 = 59.3% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV13 = 44.4% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
vs. AV14 = 29.6% chance of at least one penetrating
hit
Multimelta at 24"
vs AV10 = 55.5% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV11 = 44.4% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV12 = 33.3% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV13 = 22.2% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV14 = 11.1% chance of at least one penetrating hit
Multimelta at 12"
vs AV10 = 67.0% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV11 = 64.8% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV12 = 61.1% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV13 = 55.6% chance of at least one penetrating hit
vs AV14 = 48.1% chance of at least one penetrating hit
So with all those numbers, here's my analysis (hopefully everyone can understand my abreviations):
Ranked in order of effectivness:
vs AV10 = THTLLC,
THAC, TLLC, THLC, MM12, AC, LC, MM24
vs AV11 = THTLLC,
THAC, MM12, TLLC, THLC, LC, AC, MM24
vs AV12 = THTLLC,
MM12, THLC (Tie1), TLLC (Tie1), AC (tie2), THAC
(tie2), LC, MM24
vs AV13 = MM12,
THTLLC, THAC, THLC, AC, TLLC, LC, MM24
vs AV14 = MM12,
THAC, THTLLC, AC, THLC, TLLC, LC, MM24
Now, I apologize for how long and messy that
is. But that's just for penetrating hits. Actual
damaging hits you get slightly different results,
but, without going into all that math rigamarol,
the consenus was that the only way to beat out
the assault cannon was to have a TLLC with tank
hunters. That makes for a very expensive dread.
Of course, beyond 24" the point is rather
moot.
You pays yer money and makes yer choices.
Ezz
